‘Black Swan’ Cyber-Attack Speculation Around Baltimore Bridge Collapse

On Tuesday morning, the 1.6-mile Baltimore Key Bridge collapsed into the harbor after being struck by a 984-foot cargo ship en route to Singapore. Luckily, there was adequate time for authorities to halt traffic on the bridge after the ship issued a distress call, but there are still several vehicles and workers that were present on the bridge that authorities are currently searching for.

Before any thorough investigation was conducted, the Baltimore Police Commissioner, the White House and several federal government agencies, stated there was no evidence of terrorism. Former National Security Adviser and retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn emphasized that we cannot take terrorism “off the table”.

Supply Chain Crisis

Speculation surrounding a ‘black swan event’ is focused on the massive disruption of mid-Atlantic supply chains, as the major East Coast port is now rendered inoperable because the Francis Scott Key Bridge spanned the sole shipping lane in and out of the harbor. The port is ranked 9th for total value dollar of cargo and 13th for cargo tonnage among U.S. ports. Bloomberg data reveals that Mazda, Mercedes Benz, Subaru, Mitsubishi, and Volkswagen are most impacted by this disruption, severely affecting the U.S. automotive supply chain.

Additionally, the energy and food industries will be negatively impacted due to the disruption of rail lines and the entry of other cargo ships. The removal of hazardous materials has also been impeded, as the Francis Scott Key Bridge served as the second busiest route in the country for such materials.

Cause of the Catastrophe

Reports indicate that the ship “lost propulsion,” and the captain lost control. Although the captain, a Ukrainian national, may not be responsible for anything nefarious, video shows the vessel appearing to lose power before colliding with the bridge, raising speculation about a possible cyber-attack.

Video posted by Wall Street Journal, captured by CCTV footage.

Fueling Speculations

Footage of the incident shows the Dali cargo ship never entered the approach lane in the channel, which is necessary for making the turn successfully under the bridge. The ship’s power is seen going out at a bend in the river where there would not be enough room left to maneuver into the approach channel.

There was also no harbor pilot present to navigate the ship even though a harbor pilot is required to traverse any obstacles, such as the pylon of a bridge.

History of Accidents

The same ship responsible for the Baltimore Key Bridge collapse was involved in a 2016 accident at the Port of Antwerp in Belgium. The cause of that accident was said to be a mistake made by the ship’s master and captain.

Going Forward

It is unclear when operations will be restored to the severed marine terminals, although it is expected to be several years before the bridge is operational.

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