As the 2024 election season gets underway, concerns about President Joe Biden’s competency continue to grow. Special Counsel Robert Hur highlighted this recently when he described Biden as a “well-intentioned elderly man with a poor memory.”
There is serious discussion of an alternative Democratic nominee with Biden, now 81 years old, having experienced numerous fumbles and gaffes throughout his term which continue to become more frequent.
Democrats Want an Alternative
A recent Rasmussen poll revealed that 48% of Democrats approve of the party finding another candidate to replace Biden before the election in November. The poll also indicated that Michelle Obama was the preferred replacement among alternative options, with 20% of the support. Other options included Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom, and Gretchen Whitmer. However, “none of the above” and “not sure” were also options, and most voters selected “none of the above” with 27%.
The Odds
Betting company Betfair was offering 4/9 odds (69%) that Biden will be the nominee come November. However, his declining health has people wondering if he could potentially drop out before the Democratic National Convention. Betfair has given Michelle Obama 8/1 odds (11%) to be the Democratic Presidential nominee, making her the second most likely candidate behind Biden.
*note that Betfair odds change continuously*
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom noted that widespread concern about Biden’s mental competency was leading some ‘punters’ to put their money on other potential candidates. He said, “Four years ago at the start of the primary season, Joe Biden wasn’t even the favorite for the Democratic nomination, let alone the presidency.”
The Alternate
Michelle Obama has not explicitly stated she would run, going so far as to say she hates politics. However, in January on Jay Shetty’s On Purpose podcast, she admitted she is “terrified about what could possibly happen” in the next election.
How it Could Happen
Deadlines to file for primary races have already passed, but the change could happen during the Democratic National Convention in August. Biden could announce during the primary season, or at the end of it, that he is no longer a candidate for office, leaving the delegates to choose a new nominee.
A similar scenario has occurred before. President Lyndon Johnson announced he was dropping out in March 1968 after struggling in the primaries. Johnson’s approval rating at the time was 36%. Biden’s approval rating is currently hovering in that vicinity with an ABC News/Ipsos poll from January putting his approval rating at 33%. That poll also showed only 28% believe Biden has the mental sharpness to effectively serve as President, compared to 47% who said the same of Trump.
Michelle Obama’s approval rating in 2016 as she was set to leave the White House was 72%. However, as she begins standing more firmly on policies that affect people’s lives, that number would likely drop. Nonetheless, her approval rating could still be a strong contender in a national election.
A plausible scenario, given Michelle Obama’s distaste for politics, is to win the Democratic nomination, go on to win the national election, step down after a year or so, and turn the presidency over to her Vice President, allowing Democrats to retain control of the White House without her serving a full term.
Another possibility that cannot be dismissed is the possibility of Barack Obama assuming presidential duties. His return to the White House could reinstate his influence and ensure the continuity of the agenda he advocated for during his two-term presidency.
The Exceptionalist 
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